Consumer Behavior, Expectation and Retail Sales in Service Economy: Based on Household Survey Analysis

Retail Sales sector is the most important business in service economy, and also plays an essential role in consumer-driven economy. Consumer behavior and expectation is the key factor to retail sales fluctuations, which have big impacts on spending and consuming decisions on the current and future basis. We construct a consistent Consumer Pricing Behavior Composite Index and Consumer Expectation Index to compare with Retail Sales fluctuation patterns. We also conclude that with appropriate methodology and underlying survey, consumer behavior and expectation could be a useful proxy to predict retail sales growth.