Regional load forecasting method based on the S-curve power business expansion

As the local power load fluctuates more and more frequently, the usual macroscopic method is not suitable for the regional load forecast. The paper presents a load forecasting method mainly for the next 3-5 years, which introduces business expanding information of the large industrial consumers to reflect the local load variation. And the S-shaped growth curve theory is put forward to describe the growth tendency of conversion rate of business expansion. With drawing and comparing the curve, the forecasting result can be modified to have a better accuracy. The effectiveness of the method is verified by the example of a certain urban distribution network.