Risk Analysis of Construction Schedule Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

For a construction project, schedule is essential to the successful execution of the project, so the management of schedule is very critical. The most important risk about the construction schedule is duration risk. Duration risk means the possibility and loss of incompletion in the total stipulated duration limit. On the basis of the researches of other scholars, this paper simulates the project´s duration and analyzes the risk of construction schedule by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The process of Monte Carlo simulation for construction schedule risk analysis is established. At the same time it is applied in a numerical example. The result shows that the MCS method is very convenient, effective and efficient. It provides scientific quantitative basis and information for project management and helps decision makers easily make control with duration risk of project and make true decision.