A Strategy for Med-Long Term Load Forecast Based on the Fuzzy Complementary AHP

In rapidly developing areas and systems, various methods of med-long term load forecasting can lead to great different results. So not only should there be forecast calculation in system planning, but also simulation decision modules should be added in decision supporting system. A simulation strategy for load forecasting is proposed in this paper and the method of fuzzy complementary AHP is applied to making forecasting decision system. With all relevant factors that influence electric load forecasting taken into account, a multi-level and multi-factor decision-making analytic architecture is established and, by adopting the improved AHP and the knowledge-bank based on expert system, an expert or group decision-making judgment matrix with fuzzy complementary character is constructed. The fuzzy consistency is obtained through transformation and synthesis. The calculation of the characteristic vectors is simple and accurate. By adopting characteristic vectors to directly act on the decision weights, the influences of various forecasting methods are taken into account. This method for simulation decision-making in a planning decision-making support system is both practical and capable of expansion.