Short-term forecasting of travel time based on license plate matching data

In this paper, we review the state of art of short-term traffic forecasting models, outlining their basic ideas, related works, advantages and disadvantages of each model. An improved adaptive exponential smoothing (IAES) model is also proposed to overcome the drawbacks of previous adaptive exponential smoothing model. Then comparing experiments are carried out under normal traffic condition and abnormal traffic condition to evaluate the performance of four main branches of forecasting models on direct travel time data obtained by license plate matching. The results of experiments show the forecasting performance of IASE is superior to other models in shorter forecasting horizon (one and two step forecasting).