Title :
Fast simulation for multifactor portfolio credit risk in the t-copula model
Author :
Kang, Wanmo ; Shahabuddin, Perwez
Author_Institution :
New Product Res., Moody´´s KMV, New York, NY, USA
Abstract :
We present an importance sampling procedure for the estimation of multifactor portfolio credit risk for the t -copula model, i.e, the case where the risk factors have the multivariate t distribution. We use a version of the multivariate t that can be expressed as a ratio of a multivariate normal and a scaled chi-square random variable. The procedure consists of two steps. First, using the large deviations result for the Gaussian model in Glasserman, Kang, and Shahabuddin (2005a), we devise and apply a change of measure to the chi-square random variable. Then, conditional on the chi-square random variable, we apply the importance sampling procedure developed for the Gaussian copula model in Glasserman, Kang, Shahabuddin (2005b). We support our importance sampling procedure by numerical examples.
Keywords :
Gaussian processes; financial management; importance sampling; risk management; Gaussian copula model; chi-square random variable; fast simulation; importance sampling procedure; multifactor portfolio credit risk estimation; multivariate distribution; risk factor; Approximation error; Gaussian distribution; Monte Carlo methods; Portfolios; Probability distribution; Random variables;
Conference_Titel :
Simulation Conference, 2005 Proceedings of the Winter
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-9519-0
DOI :
10.1109/WSC.2005.1574462