Reliability predictions to support a design for reliability program

Traditional reliability prediction methods have in the past missed the mark in supporting the system engineering design process to such a great extent that some professionals view any form of reliability prediction as anathema to designing reliable systems. For example, the Department of Defense (DoD) Guide for Achieving Reliability, Availability and Maintainability cites “Reliance on predictions instead of conducting engineering design analysis” as one of many reasons why military systems are failing to meet reliability targets. The December 6, 2007 memorandum on reliability from Assistant Secretary of the Army, Claude Bolton, states “Reliability Predictions, based on handbooks or similar approaches, are historically highly inaccurate and can lead to poor design decisions.” Efforts are underway to change this. Industry and the DoD are working together to revamp reliability prediction processes so that they provide the needed information to the design process in a timely fashion as well as provide relevant information for decisions in testing and sustainable field support.