Impact of information on the quality of a prognosis indicator

This paper proposes a way to determine the quality and the amount of available information on a prognosis. For this purpose, a generic probabilistic model of the evolution of dynamic systems, called Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process (PDMP) is proposed and described. Prognosis consists in the computation of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a system, which is defined thereafter for repairable systems. The way information plays a role into RUL is described as well. Then a criterion is proposed to calculate the impact of information on the use of RUL, especially for systems design. The methodology is illustrated with a BLEED system, simplified to allow analytical results. It details the calculation process and highlights where results are most influenced by the information. For future research, this methodology could be applied on more complex models and/or with other criterion, especially to see the interaction with simulation.