How to Make the Quantitative Analysis in Evolutionary Game Theory? A Forecasting Analysis of Chinese Rural Labor Transfer

Based on the perfect rationality and common knowledge theoretically hypotheses, the out-of-equilibrium outcome or out of subgame perfect equilibrium path couldn´t achieve in traditional game theory. Evolutionary game theory analyzes the population´s dispersive behaviors under the bounded rational hypothesis. The theoretical payoffs of different strategies are decided by the practical observed outcome, so we can make the quantitative analysis. The paper puts forward the basic method for the evolutionary game quantitative analysis in social economy system, including bounded rationality derived from individual local information, imitation derived from local search decision-making and the social statistical investigating data reflected the total interactional outcome of social populations. At last, as a case of quantitative forecasting analysis, Chinese rural labor transferring course should be discussed.