Forecast and Analysis of the Effectiveness of Changsha Rail Transit Based on CA/GIS

The rail transit as a modern, fast, mass transit system plays an important role in the evolution of transportation system and urban spatial structure. Therefore, the quantitative study of the effectiveness of urban rail transit has an important significance. The traffic flow prediction system model was set up with the method of GIS and cellular automata (cellular automata, abbreviated as CA), through adopting planning target and policy indicator, using the data of traffic saturation degree, transportation lines, population distribution at street/town, traffic flow and land use and etc. The traffic flow of different sections during rush hours was predicted and analyzed, When Changsha Metro No.1 and No.2 plan in 2015 was opened to traffic across the board. Simulation result display that: Metro Line No.1, 2 can greatly reduce the traffic pressure of the road along the line in the city zone. High intensity of land development has significant effect on traffic flow. To solve urban transport problems should be start with many aspects, such as to optimize the distribution of cities, to advocate transportation priority and construct scientific transportation network.