To forecast decision-making with system analysis, systemic analysis to foresee alternative futures: A structural modelling of conflicts and feedback processes in complex socio-technological objects

We show first how to elaborate a "Set of Guidelines for Alternative Futures" and discuss the difficulties in modelling complex systems. Advantages of structural cross-interaction matrix for future creative planning is explained by comparison with forecasting using for dynamic modelling. We describe how such a matrix can be used to cybernetically search for the internal conflicts it can reveal inside the object under study. The procedure used to determine the feedback loops between matrix elements is explained and we describe how the results are listed in a useful fashion. Finally we distinguish the two possible forms of action : conjectural (as in forecasting dynamic models) and structural. Structural actions are best suited for future creative planning and the structural model is the only one capable of revealing them.