Analytical modelling and representation of wind energy resources

Accurate representation of input wind energy resources is essential for the correct assessment of energy outputs of wind-based electricity generation systems. The main problems during such assessment are high levels of intermittency and variability of both wind speeds and wind directions, which, if not properly modelled, will ultimately result in uncertainties and errors in the calculated energy outputs. Using a relatively large set of available high-resolution wind speed data (second-by-second measurements at one UK site), this paper presents and discusses a new analytical model for the representation of wind energy resources. The proposed model uses Weibull distribution and Markov Chain for both short-term and long-term representations of intermittency and variability of wind energy resources. The output results of the model are directly compared with the actual measurement data, demonstrating the accuracy and applicability of the proposed modelling approach. The paper also discusses how the proposed model can be used for wind forecasting, i.e. prediction of available wind resources.