Sample covariance based estimation of Capon algorithm error probabilities

The method of interval estimation (MIE) provides a strategy for mean squared error (MSE) prediction of algorithm performance at low signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) below estimation threshold where asymptotic predictions fail. MIE interval error probabilities for the Capon algorithm are known and depend on the true data covariance and assumed signal array response. Herein estimation of these error probabilities is considered to improve representative measurement errors for parameter estimates obtained in low SNR scenarios, as this may improve overall target tracking performance. A statistical analysis of Capon error probability estimation based on the data sample covariance matrix is explored herein.