Chinese Annual Electric Power Consumption Forecasting Based on Grey Model and Global Best Optimization Method

Author

Meng, Ming ; Shang, Wei

Author_Institution

Dept. of Econ. & Manage., North China Electr. Power Univ., Baoding, China

fYear

2009

fDate

25-26 April 2009

Firstpage

677

Lastpage

680

Abstract

The annual electric power consumption is one of the most important factors in operation decisions of Chinese electric power generation groups. The grey model is feasible method to deal with this trend extension problem with few data. But the simple approximation in dispersing the first order differential equation affects it forecasting precise. Based on adjusting the positions of each particle, the global best optimization method could search the best proportion point. This could improve the forecasting results in the practice of annual electric power consumption.

Keywords

load forecasting; optimisation; power consumption; electric power consumption forecasting; global best optimization method; grey model; Artificial neural networks; Differential equations; Economic forecasting; Error analysis; Extrapolation; Load forecasting; Optimization methods; Power generation; Power generation economics; Predictive models; Chinese annual electric power consumption; forecasting; global best optimization method; grey model;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Database Technology and Applications, 2009 First International Workshop on

Conference_Location

Wuhan, Hubei

Print_ISBN

978-0-7695-3604-0

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/DBTA.2009.126

Filename

5207667