Flood alert system using rainfall forecast data in Western Puerto Rico

The Western Puerto Rico area is subject to flooding due to sudden, extreme rainfall events, some of which fail to be detected by NOAA´s NEXRAD radar. The use of new radars with higher spatial resolution and covering the low atmosphere are vital for flood forecasting efforts, and for studying and predicting atmospheric phenomena. Recently the University of Puerto Rico in Mayagüez initiated investigations using two (2) types of these radars, Off-the Grid (OTG) and TropiNet (RXM-25), respectively, in the Mayagüez Bay Drainage Basin area. This is the first time that such radar technology will be used for hydrologic analyses and specifically for rainfall forecasting in Puerto Rico. The forecast analysis will be made using time series with autoregressive methods and selecting the stochastic model parameters most appropriate for an optimal prediction; with the radar results, a distributed hydrologic model (Vflo™) is used to obtain the spatial distribution of flooding depth.