Combination of Democracy Values Using Hooper´s Rule Hooper´s Rule

The objective of this paper is to continue the study of inductive approaches to determine causality in comparative politics by a fuzzy approach and then a classical statistical method. A method proposed by Guiasu was utilized by Mordeson et al. whereas the Jeffrey´s Rule as described by Guiasu was employed by Mordeson et al. In this paper, the Bayes´ Rule as described by Guiasu is used to combine the democracy values of Freedom House, Vanhanen, and Polity for 27 countries in Eastern Europe. Also, the Dempster-Schafer method is also applied to measure the democracy values for these 27 countries. A data set of eight factors hypothesized to be important is used to demonstrate consolidation. These factors are: HI (stateness), H2 (corruption), H3 (privatization), H4 (multi-party system), H5 (usable - reformed -public administration), H6 (decentralization), H7 (rule of law -autonomous judiciary), and H8 (avoiding a powerful chief executive). We use a model proposed by Guiasu that describes the process of reaching a verdict by probabilistic weighting of available evidence. We used the model to determine a numerical relationship between the H-factors. The classical rules from decision theory proposed by Hooper, Dempster, Bayes, and Jeffrey are special cases of Guiasu´s weighting process. For each H-factor, two sets of median democracy values for all 27 countries in Eastern Europe were obtained - one by the Freedom House, Vanhanen, and Polity method and the other by the Dempster-Schafer method. Subsequently, an extensive non-parametric statistical analysis will be performed on scores of these 8 H-factors to investigate the consistency of the two scoring methods.