Simulating the potential impacts of a 10-kiloton nuclear explosion on an electric power system serving a major city

This paper describes the methodology employed by Argonne to simulate the potential impact of a nuclear explosion on an electric system serving a large populated city. The method uses a combined deterministic and heuristics-based approach for the analysis. Initially, deterministic steady-state tools, such as load flow and EPfast, are used to explore the possibility of uncontrolled islanding. Heuristics are then used to estimate additional potential cascading effects, particularly during the transient period. The effects of the electromagnetic pulse are determined on the basis of findings from previous related studies, while the probable system dynamic response is estimated by using heuristics. System resilience is heuristically assessed in several aspects, including partial and full-load rejection capability of participating power plants, power swing allowance based on initial power angle values, and over-frequency relay protection sufficiency against extreme grid events such as sudden loss of a large load. Major findings are presented and discussed.