Analyzing noncombatant evacuation operations using discrete event simulation

Large scale evacuations can be extremely complex, requiring tremendous coordination and logistical support. Noncombatant Evacuation Operations (NEOs) present additional challenges of civil unrest and violence that congests the transportation network and can require military assistance to execute the evacuation. NEOs contain many moving parts and simultaneous processes including thousands of evacuees, vehicles, aircraft, and personnel tracking technology. Discrete event simulation is a technique well suited to handle the complex interactions between the entities and to analyze the behavior of the system. This paper describes the methodology used to analyze NEO by the Center for Army Analysis (CAA) and presents a case study that illustrates how modeling can be used to evaluate various courses of action and support decision making. When preparing to execute a NEO, decision makers use simulation modeling and analysis to evaluate evacuation timelines, allocate resources and lift assets, select safe haven locations, and determine support requirements for evacuees.