A stochastic discrete event simulator for effects-based planning

In this system oriented paper we describe the architectural framework and information flow model of a stochastic discrete event simulator for evaluating military operational plans. The simulator is tailored for Effect-based Planning where the outcome of a plan is compared with a desired end state. The simulator evaluates several alternative plans and identifies those that are closest to the desired end state. As a test case we use a scenario which has been developed by the Swedish Armed Forces in their Combined Joint Staff Exercises. The scenario is carried out in a fictitious country called Bogaland. The simulator focuses on separation of military scenario data (implemented as an XML-model) and military action logic (implemented as a rule based engine). By separating scenario data from actors´ behavior rules the modeling task becomes easier for subject matter experts. The results show that alternative plans can be identified based on efficiency and effectiveness.