A Structure Analysis and Trend Prediction of the Population Development in China

In this paper, improved Malthus exponential growth model and grey forecasting model are adopted to analyze the structure of the population development in China and we give mid-short term or long-term prediction. According to the results, a new differential equation model which based on natural growth rate of population from 2000 to 2003 is built. In view of the new features of China´s population development these years, 12 factors indicators are selected from different aspects of China´s population structure using grey correlation analysis. At last, index factors with greatest influence on the development of China´s total population are figured out for the purpose of making recommendations and reasonable control on the development of the population of china.