Title :
Study on VaR Forecasts Based on Realized Range-Based Volatility
Author :
Mingyuan, Guo ; Shiying, Zhang
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Manage., Tianjin Univ., Tianjin, China
Abstract :
In order to study VaR calculations, we studied the issue of volatility forecasting for VaR calculations by using high frequency data. Researchers have studied the issue of volatility forecasting for VaR calculations by using realized volatility. However, realized volatility isnpsilat a consistent measure for the true volatility due to microstructure effect of the financial market. As a result, we studied the issue of volatility forecasting for VaR calculations by using realized range-based volatility, which is superior to realized volatility. We do the empirical research by using the high frequency data from the Chinese stock market-Shanghai stock market.
Keywords :
forecasting theory; probability; risk analysis; stock markets; value engineering; Chinese stock market-Shanghai stock market; VaR forecast; financial market microstructure effect; probability; realized range-based volatility; risk measure; value-at-risk measure; volatility forecasting; Conference management; Data engineering; Economic forecasting; Frequency; Microstructure; Portfolios; Predictive models; Probability; Reactive power; Stock markets; VaR; high frequency data; realized range-based volatility; realized volatility;
Conference_Titel :
Business Intelligence and Financial Engineering, 2009. BIFE '09. International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Beijing
Print_ISBN :
978-0-7695-3705-4
DOI :
10.1109/BIFE.2009.197