Research on the urban population capacity in rapid urbanization area A case study of Dongguan

Population capacity is a strategic issues regarding achieving urban sustainable development. Based on Grey System Theory and supply & demand balance model of work force ,this paper put forward a calculated capacity of the economic population in each town of Dongguan from 2001 to 2007. An estimated capacity of future economic capacity of each town in Dongguan is also presented based on a comparison with actual population capacity. It shows that: the job number status is the decisive factor of the work force and population migration in Dongguan, as the capacity of economic population is depending on work force demand; In 2001, most towns in Dongguan was experiencing economic population capacity suppression compared with actual population, while in 2007, the economic population capacity is 1,610,000 less than actual population capacity; the estimation of economic population capacity of Dongguan has pointed out that it has room to increase in the future.