Short-term forecasting ionospheric delay over UKM, Malaysia, Using the Holt-Winter method

The ionospheric delay is the main factor that causes the errors in the navigation of the global positioning system (GPS). GPS satellite signals propagate through the ionosphere before reaching the GPS receiver on earth. Therefore, ionosphere forecasting studies play an important role in the reduction of this positioning error. In this work, a statistical method for forecasting the ionospheric delay is presented using GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC Monitor (GISTM) over Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, (UKM) station, covering a period from June to December 2010. The Holt-Winter statistical method was chosen to forecast the ionospheric delay as it is suitable for forecasting time series with seasonal patterns and repeated trends. Based on the delay forecasted at the period chosen, the peak was obtained during the summer season. The comparison between the actual and forecast delay gave a relatively low amount of error. This method has proven to be effective in forecasting the ionospheric delay with an accuracy of 78-96%.