Title :
Study on the model of construction accident forecast based on grey-markov theory
Author :
Huang, Guozhong ; Chen, Aiji ; Liu, Hui ; Cui, Xianglan ; Sun, Siheng ; Wang, Cansheng
Author_Institution :
Civil & Environ. Eng. Sch., Univ. of Sci. & Technol. Beijing, Beijing, China
Abstract :
According to the grey system theory and markov principle, the fitting accuracy index is stochastic and fluctuant when time series data development trend is fitted through the grey theory; but the markov principle is suitable for processing the system with great stochastic fluctuation; therefore, a forecast model is put forward which is in accordance with the characteristics of construction accidents´ statistical data and is based on the grey system theory and markov principle. The model is suitable for the dynamic forecasting process featured by short forecasting time, small data quality and great stochastic fluctuation. The conclusion about the development trend of construction accidents with the model based on the grey-markov theory is more ideal compared with the grey model. The application example shows that the forecasting conclusion based on grey-markov theory is more accurate and more reliable. So the model is available enough to forecast the construction accidents.
Keywords :
Markov processes; construction industry; forecasting theory; grey systems; industrial accidents; time series; Markov principle; construction accident forecast; data quality; dynamic forecasting; fitting accuracy index; forecast model; grey system theory; grey-Markov theory; short forecasting time; statistical data; stochastic fluctuation; time series data development; Accidents; Data models; Forecasting; Markov processes; Mathematical model; Predictive models; construction accident; forecasting model; markov principle; the grey system theory;
Conference_Titel :
Multimedia Technology (ICMT), 2011 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Hangzhou
Print_ISBN :
978-1-61284-771-9
DOI :
10.1109/ICMT.2011.6002849
