Study on Change Monitoring and Prediction Model of Wetland Types in Yancheng

This paper takes three main wetland distributing counties in Yancheng: Dongtai, Dafeng and Sheyang as study areas. With the processing of four-period (every six years from 1988 to 2006) remote sensing (RS) images, a dynamic change analysis of the Yancheng wetland types was illuminated at first. Then, according to the results of the RS images interpretation, the change prediction of the wetland types was analyzed by using Markov model and grey prediction model. The results show that, from 1988 to 2006, the area of cropland, residential land, squaculture farm, spartina patens, seepweed has a tendency to increase in general, at the same time, the area of mudflat, reed, brine pan tends to decrease violently. The most important reason causing these changes is the current policy of large-scale coast exploitation. The prediction results indicate that: the area of residential land and aquaculture farm will maintain their increasing tendencies in the next 20 years. However, after the year of 2012, cropland is about to decrease by degrees and the spartina patens will become the dominant species gradually as its evolution trend.