DocumentCode :
305651
Title :
Predictive validity in stated choice studies: a before and after comparison with revealed preference
Author :
Beaton, Patrick ; Chen, Qiuzi Cynthia ; Meghdir, Hamo
Author_Institution :
Inst. for Transp., New Jersey Inst. of Technol., Newark, NJ, USA
Volume :
1
fYear :
1996
fDate :
14-17 Oct 1996
Firstpage :
205
Abstract :
Models that explain human behavior within a given domain must be capable of predicting behavioral changes within that domain. Stated response models encompassing stated preference and stated choice models employ hypothetical choice scenarios to generate transportation demand forecasts. This paper presents a validity test for the application of stated choice models to commuter mode choice. A before and after experiment lasting two years was used as the basis of a test for both stated choice and revealed preference forecasts and backcasts. Stated choice was estimated for employees prior to the implementation of two employee trip reduction policies. A revealed preference model was estimated for the same class of employees one year after the programs were initiated. The stated choice model forecasted mode shifts within one percent of the “after” implementation value; the revealed preference model backcasted to within 10 percent of the “before” initiation value
Keywords :
forecasting theory; transportation; behavioral changes; commuter mode choice; employee trip reduction policies; human behavior; hypothetical choice scenarios; predictive validity; revealed preference backcasts; revealed preference forecasts; stated choice studies; transportation demand forecasts; Demand forecasting; Equations; Humans; Instruments; Logic testing; Predictive models; State estimation; Transportation; USA Councils; Vehicles;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 1996., IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Beijing
ISSN :
1062-922X
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-3280-6
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/ICSMC.1996.569767
Filename :
569767
Link To Document :
بازگشت