Title :
A Nonparametric Trend Model for Henan´s GDP
Author :
Wu, Xinqian ; Yang, Wancai ; Mei, Qianqian
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Math. & Stat., Henan Univ. of Sci. & Technol., Luoyang, China
Abstract :
In order to quantitatively understand the trend of Henan´s GDP in the period of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, a nonparametric regression model is established based on polynomial spline method in this paper. The fitting average absolute relative error is 8.38%. Comparative analysis illustrates that the proposed model has strong predictive ability. Prediction results show that the average annual growth rate is about 11.07% during the 12th Five-Year Plan. Henan´s ecomony will still keep steady and rapid development.
Keywords :
economic indicators; nonparametric statistics; regression analysis; Henan GDP; average annual growth rate; comparative analysis; nonparametric regression model; nonparametric trend model; polynomial spline method; strong predictive ability; twelfth five-year plan; Economic indicators; Fitting; Mathematical model; Polynomials; Predictive models; Splines (mathematics); Henan province; Twelfth Five-Year; gross domestic product; nonparametric regression; spline;
Conference_Titel :
Computational Sciences and Optimization (CSO), 2012 Fifth International Joint Conference on
Conference_Location :
Harbin
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-1365-0
DOI :
10.1109/CSO.2012.79
