Modeling Stochastic Correlated Failures and their Effects on Network Reliability

The physical infrastructure of communication networks is vulnerable to spatially correlated failures arising from various physical stresses such as natural disasters (earthquakes and hurricanes) as well as malicious coordinated attacks using weapons of mass destruction. Some disaster events such as earthquakes and terrorist attacks may occur in more than one location in a short period of time. Hence multiple sets of correlated link failures may occur if more events occurred before the previous set of failed links were repaired. Here, the statistical properties of induced-failure patterns depend upon the spatial interaction among stress centers (e.g., interaction among earthquake or attack locations). This paper presents a stochastic model, based on spatial point processes, for representing stress centers in geographical plane in order to facilitate the modeling of spatially inhomogeneous and correlated link failures in communication networks. This model is then used to further generate scenarios with inhibition or clustering between stress centers, which enables detailed assessment of vulnerabilities of the network to the level of inhomogeneity and spatial correlation in the stress-event centers. Detailed simulation results are presented to compare network reliability for various scenarios of link failures and to find geographically vulnerable areas of a network as well as worst-case scenarios of stress-events. Overall, this effort will provide some critical knowledge and simulation capability for other focus areas of research in network reliability and survivability.