Title :
The application of space-time ARIMA model on traffic flow forecasting
Author :
Lin, Shu-lan ; Huang, Hong-qiong ; Zhu, Da-qi ; Wang, Tian-zhen
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Inf. Eng., Shanghai Maritime Univ., Shanghai, China
Abstract :
Traffic flow data are in the form of spatial time series and are collected at specific locations at constant intervals of time. Space-time autoregressive time series modeling is a promising inductive method that uses a small number of parameters and can be used for online monitoring and prediction. In this paper, we develop space-time autoregressive models for urban traffic flow network scenarios. We evaluate the ability of the space-time autoregressive models to model the spatial and temporal correlations in the traffic network and show that the space-time model performs well.
Keywords :
autoregressive moving average processes; directed graphs; forecasting theory; road traffic; time series; transportation; autoregressive model; directed graph; inductive method; online monitoring; space-time ARIMA model; spatial time series; temporal correlation; urban traffic flow forecasting; Constraint theory; Cybernetics; Data engineering; Educational institutions; Machine learning; Predictive models; Random variables; Telecommunication traffic; Traffic control; Vectors; Forecasting; Intelligent Transport Systems; STARIMA; Traffic flow network;
Conference_Titel :
Machine Learning and Cybernetics, 2009 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Baoding
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-3702-3
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-3703-0
DOI :
10.1109/ICMLC.2009.5212785