Risk analysis based on the ship collision modeling and forecasting system

Traditional risk analyses approach for ship collision generally calculates the possibility of ship collision with historical data, mathematical models and consultation of the experts, which only evaluates the present risk level. However, it is obvious that the outcome of the analyses is definitely not appropriate to describe the future of the studied area. This article introduces a new risk analysis method based on geographical distribution, with a combination of forecasting and simulating system, which has been verified by a concrete example. Its outcome highlights the future high-risk regions in form of geographical distribution. Compared to traditional risk analyses, this method may predict the future risk state of the studied area more scientifically and accurately in order to give a strong support in adopting and implementing the ship collision risk control measures.