ASAP: A Self-Adaptive Prediction System for Instant Cloud Resource Demand Provisioning

The promise of cloud computing is to provide computing resources instantly whenever they are needed. The state-of-art virtual machine (VM) provisioning technology can provision a VM in tens of minutes. This latency is unacceptable for jobs that need to scale out during computation. To truly enable on-the-fly scaling, new VM needs to be ready in seconds upon request. In this paper, We present an online temporal data mining system called ASAP, to model and predict the cloud VM demands. ASAP aims to extract high level characteristics from VM provisioning request stream and notify the provisioning system to prepare VMs in advance. For quantification issue, we propose Cloud Prediction Cost to encodes the cost and constraints of the cloud and guide the training of prediction algorithms. Moreover, we utilize a two-level ensemble method to capture the characteristics of the high transient demands time series. Experimental results using historical data from an IBM cloud in operation demonstrate that ASAP significantly improves the cloud service quality and provides possibility for on-the-fly provisioning.