Manpower forecasting: a discrete-event object-oriented simulation approach

Every organization needs a workforce suitable for its tasks in order to reach its business aims. To get insight into the quality and amount of staff needed in the future, human resource forecasting models are being used. This descriptive paper addresses a new way of human resource forecasting, based on simulation models of personnel movements in the organization. An example model is implemented in a simulation language in a project for the Royal Netherlands Navy. An important requirement in the design of the simulation model is that maintenance to keep it up to date with organizational changes should be possible without much effort. We describe what human resource forecasting is about. Next we describe what kind of models have been developed so far. In the third place we will give an overview of the type of information needed for manpower planning. Finally a new simulation based design will be presented.