Risk Identification, Assessment, and Management for the 2006 Virginia Gubernatorial Inauguration

The ability to prevent, respond to, and recover from terrorist attacks as well as natural disasters is critical to national security. Successful preparation requires the coordination of many different agencies (local, state, federal, non-governmental and volunteer) in order to obtain optimal utilization of their available resources and capabilities. Currently, there is no standard system for collaboration between agencies to perform risk analysis. In addition, devising a methodology for choosing between various security options can be difficult and typically results in autocratic decision-making. These problems hinder the breadth and depth of contingency planning and should be addressed in order to increase the effectiveness of risk management applications. After the attacks that took place on September 11^th , 2001, risk management has become a major concern for the United States. These recommendations outline the intent of the collaborative adaptive multiplayer hierarchical holographic modeling (AMP-HHM) tool. As a case study, the Capstone team, in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems (CRMES), deployed the AMP-HHM tool for the 2006 Virginia gubernatorial inauguration. The AMP-HHM framework takes a holistic approach by providing a methodology for identifying most, if not all, of the entities of a system. This allowed participants in the risk analysis process to effectively identify risks associated with the inauguration. They then used this database of scenarios to assess the criticality of each risk in terms of likelihood and consequences. Based on a vast collection of assessments, the threats that posed the largest magnitude of risk were given priority. To mitigate these risks, a multitude of security options were brainstormed and then analyzed to determine which options should be implemented, based on their effectiveness, cost, and consequences. After the risk analysis process was completed, five- - threat scenarios were selected as the focus for evaluating policy options. It was determined that nine broad security categories could be employed to address the five selected threats. From these security options, four were determined to be superior: security guards, fire prevention, networking, and the fortification of surrounding infrastructures. These results were used by the office of commonwealth preparedness (OCP) to better prevent, prepare for, and respond to catastrophic events through increased awareness and more efficient allocation of resources (personnel, security devices, etc.). The inauguration exercise provided insight on the effectiveness of the AMP-HHM tool as a risk analysis aid. The lessons learned from this exercise are being used to improve the software in order to increase its effectiveness in contingency planning for future risk analysis applications, such as the 2007 Jamestown anniversary