Some patterns of technological change in high-performance computers

The author describes the patterns of the unusually rapid change that high-performance computer technology is undergoing. He identifies the stages in which technological changes occur and then defines `change´ as the first derivative of an information function that describes the state of a technology. He explores the driving forces that cause three generic patterns of technological change: incremental, exponential, and logistic. Some areas in high-performance computer technology that are following these patterns are identified, and a forecast is developed. Some limits of high-performance computing are discussed