Deduction of passengers´ route choice from smart card data

Deducing passengers´ route choice from smart card data provides public transport operators the opportunity to evaluate passenger service. Especially in case of disruptions when route choice models may not be valid this is an advantage. This paper proposes a method for deducing the chosen route of passengers based on smart card data and validates this method on a real life data set. The method reaches an accuracy of about 90 percent, also in case of disruptions. Moreover, it is shown how this method can be used to evaluate passenger service by a case study based on a real life data set of Netherlands Railways, the largest passenger railway operator of the Netherlands.