Trends in expert systems

Traces the evolution of expert system architectures. Earlier expert systems were almost exclusively developed on specialized machines by specialists called knowledge engineers. These early applications were typically expensive, not particularly user friendly, and often designed to demonstrate what the technology might do rather than to cost-effectively solve a problem. Today, however, it appears that highly useful expert systems are being developed in relatively large numbers on inexpensive personal computers by scientific, engineering, and technical personnel who do not have specialized expert systems training. The changes in hardware and software tools that have aided and permitted this change and their acceptance by a wide variety of users are described. Included in this discussion is a description of the changes that have taken place in the kinds of applications being pursued and in the results they are bringing in the area of productivity. Implications for the future are discussed in light of these recent trends, and estimates are made regarding the types and frequency of likely future applications