A positive analysis of the national debt dependence degree and related factors

Some scholars in China believe that the active fiscal policy should be stopped gradually in these years. However, because of the happening of the international financial crises, the central government will continue to implement the active fiscal policy. In this paper, we choose the period from the time when China began its reform and opening up to nowadays as the studying time section, take the national debt dependence degree Y as the dependent variable and the national debt dependence degree Y_-1, the macroscopic tax rate X₁, and the fiscal income centralization degree X₂ as the independent variable, utilize statistical tools such as BOX-COX transformation to make data transformation to reveal effectively the complex dependency relationship among the variables above by the regression analysis. The result showed that the macroscopic tax rate played a positive effect on the national debt dependence degree, which was weaker than the negative effect of the fiscal income centralization degree. According to the conclusions above, this paper hopes to provide theoretical support to maintain steady and rapid development with the active fiscal policy.