A public health decision support system framework using approximate reasoning methods

We describe a comprehensive framework to evaluate infectious disease mitigation strategies. Specifically, this framework is used to design, develop, validate and rapidly deploy a decision support system that can be used by public health experts to identify effective mitigation strategies for an infectious disease outbreak. An outbreak-specific decision support system must satisfy three criteria: reliability (validity of generated results based upon initial conditions), computational efficiency, and adaptability to practical considerations and changes to fundamental knowledge. An important analysis component of this framework is its approximate reasoning methods including soft computing approaches to deal with imprecise modelling data and parameters. This analysis component aids in making the modelling assumptions explicit, improving the understanding of disease mechanisms, and providing sound and timely predictions.