Title :
The Application of Time Series Seasonal Multiplicative Model and GARCH Error Amending Model on Forecasting the Monthly Peak Load
Author :
Dongxiao, Niu ; Yunyun, Zhang ; Jinpeng, Liu
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Econ. Manage., North China Electr. Power Univ., Beijing, China
Abstract :
This paper describes the basic principle of seasonal multiplicative model in time series and the GARCH model, applies the former to forecast the monthly peak load, and then uses the latter to amend the forecasting error. Calculating the real data of a regional power grid, results show the forecasting precision and effect of the error modifying model.
Keywords :
autoregressive processes; error analysis; load forecasting; time series; GARCH error amending model; monthly peak load forecasting; time series seasonal multiplicative model; Application software; Computer applications; Computer errors; Economic forecasting; Energy management; Load forecasting; Performance analysis; Power grids; Predictive models; Time series analysis; GARCH model; error amending; monthly peak load forecasting; multiplicative model in time series;
Conference_Titel :
Computer Science-Technology and Applications, 2009. IFCSTA '09. International Forum on
Conference_Location :
Chongqing
Print_ISBN :
978-0-7695-3930-0
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-5423-5
DOI :
10.1109/IFCSTA.2009.272
