Variance of Bounds in Inequality-Based Reliability Estimates

Full-system testing for large-scale systems is often infeasible or very costly. Thus, when estimating system reliability, it is desirable to employ a method that uses subsystem tests, which are often less expensive and more feasible. This paper presents a method for calculating system reliability estimates based on subsystem tests. The method does not require that subsystems or their reliability estimates be independent. It accounts for dependencies through the use of probability inequalities. The inequalities provide the basis for reliability calculations while not requiring full-system tests or information about greater-than-pairwise subsystem failure modes.