A price forecast method of commercial aircraft based on I-GM(0,N) model

This paper presents a commercial aircraft price forecast method based on the construction of I-GM(0,N) model. As a modification of conventional GM(0,N), the I-GM(0,N) model is established mainly for Cross sectional data simulation and forecast. After selecting price-affecting factors as well as selecting the Benchmark Ranking Sequence based on Grey Relational Analysis(GRA), the listing prices of some current commercial aircrafts are simulated by I-GM(0,N) model. Then, the price of B767-400ER has been forecasted using I-GM(0,N) with accuracy analysis on forecast result. Proved to have ideal error in simulation and forecast as well as less sensitivity to position of interior forecast point in the sequence, I-GM(0,N) is very effective in the price forecast of newly-designed commercial aircraft with better accuracy in the conceptual design phase.