Simulation-based decision support for effects-based planning

In this paper we describe decision support and simulation techniques to facilitate effects-based planning. By using a decision support tool, a decision maker is able to test a number of feasible plans against possible courses of events and decide which of those plans is capable of achieving the desired military end state. The purpose is to evaluate plans and understand their consequences through simulating the events and producing outcomes which result from making alternative decisions. Plans are described in the effects-based approach to operations concept as a set of effects and activities that together will lead to a desired military end state. For each activity we may have several different alternatives. Together they make up all alternative plans, as an activity tree that may be simulated. Simulated plans that are similar in both their structure and consequence are clustered together by a Potts spin neural clustering method. These plans make up a robust set of similar plans that function as ready alternatives should dynamic replanning be necessary as the situation evolves.