DocumentCode
3206118
Title
Malaysia crude oil production estimation: an application of ARIMA model
Author
Yusof, Nazuha Muda ; Rashid, Ruzaidah Sulong A. ; Mohamed, Zamzulani
Author_Institution
Universiti Teknologi MARA, 23000 Dungun, Terengganu, Malaysia
fYear
2010
fDate
5-7 Dec. 2010
Firstpage
1255
Lastpage
1259
Abstract
Monthly Malaysia crude oil production data for the period of January 2005 to May 2010 were analyzed using time-series method called Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions were calculated to examine the stationarity of the data. Then, an appropriate Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using Box-Pierce statistic and Ljung-Box statistic techniques. The predictability of future crude oil production as a forecast is measured for three leading months.
Keywords
Autoregressive processes; Correlation; Data models; Forecasting; Predictive models; Production; Time series analysis; Malaysia Crude Oil Production (MCOP); autocorrelation function; autoregressive integrated moving average; autoregressive moving average; forecasting; partial autocorrelation function;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Science and Social Research (CSSR), 2010 International Conference on
Conference_Location
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Print_ISBN
978-1-4244-8987-9
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/CSSR.2010.5773729
Filename
5773729
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