Title :
Malaysia crude oil production estimation: an application of ARIMA model
Author :
Yusof, Nazuha Muda ; Rashid, Ruzaidah Sulong A. ; Mohamed, Zamzulani
Author_Institution :
Universiti Teknologi MARA, 23000 Dungun, Terengganu, Malaysia
Abstract :
Monthly Malaysia crude oil production data for the period of January 2005 to May 2010 were analyzed using time-series method called Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions were calculated to examine the stationarity of the data. Then, an appropriate Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using Box-Pierce statistic and Ljung-Box statistic techniques. The predictability of future crude oil production as a forecast is measured for three leading months.
Keywords :
Autoregressive processes; Correlation; Data models; Forecasting; Predictive models; Production; Time series analysis; Malaysia Crude Oil Production (MCOP); autocorrelation function; autoregressive integrated moving average; autoregressive moving average; forecasting; partial autocorrelation function;
Conference_Titel :
Science and Social Research (CSSR), 2010 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-8987-9
DOI :
10.1109/CSSR.2010.5773729
