Technology Choice and the Cost Reduction Potential of Photovoltaics

We use a combination of system component analyses and individual experience curves for crystalline silicon (x-Si) modules, thin-film (TF) modules, and the balance of system (BOS) components, to compare future growth scenarios for photovoltaics (PV). The growth rates of TF and x-Si technologies are varied, while overall PV growth is held constant at 30%. For each of these scenarios, we estimate the total investment required for PV to reach a break-even point with fossil fuel based generation; and we investigate the intrinsic/lowest achievable costs from an analysis of potential materials, processing, and efficiency improvements. Our results show that a high growth rate (50 to 70% per year) of new technologies with low intrinsic costs could decrease the total investment required to reach break-even by up to 70 billion USD, as compared to a scenario where x-Si continues to dominate the market. Furthermore, the system component analysis indicates that existing TF modules can reach the low cost levels assumed in the experience curve model. These results suggest that the future growth of photovoltaics (PV) is dependent on which PV technologies grow most rapidly. New, low intrinsic cost technologies that are successfully able to enter the market could dramatically increase the potential for PV to become a globally significant energy conversion technology within the next two decades