Title :
Modelling HFMD epidemic with periodic infection rate based on data analysis
Author :
Xun-Yang Wang ; Wei-jun Ma ; Shuang-hong Ma ; Hai-feng Huo
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Electr. & Inf. Eng., Lanzhou Univ. of Technol., Lanzhou, China
Abstract :
In this paper, we formulate a kind of SIS-type Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease(HFMD) model in a short time interval (no more than ten years), in which we sufficiently consider the characteristics of seasonal variation and use periodic infection rate β(t) to describe it. Based on the available data of HFMD in china which is released monthly by Chinese Ministry of Health from 2009 to 2014(see the appendix), we fit out a rather reasonable period infection function between the susceptibles and the infectives. According to our model, we can predict and control the future development of HFMD in china.
Keywords :
data analysis; diseases; epidemics; modelling; Chinese Ministry of Health; HFMD epidemic modelling; SIS-type HFMD model; SIS-type hand, foot and mouth disease model; data analysis; infectives; periodic infection rate; susceptibles; Analytical models; Computational modeling; Data models; Diseases; Mathematical model; Mouth; Numerical models; Hand Foot and Mouth Disease; Periodic infection rate; Sensitivity analysis; The basic reproduction number;
Conference_Titel :
Control and Decision Conference (CCDC), 2015 27th Chinese
Conference_Location :
Qingdao
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4799-7016-2
DOI :
10.1109/CCDC.2015.7162036
