Probabilistic LMP prediction considering load uncertainty using two-point estimate method

In electricity markets, besides LMP calculation, finding the load levels in which LMP suddenly changes due to generation and transmission constraints would be profitable for market participants with their decision and to reducing risks. In this paper, the LMP variations due to load change and also the reason for LMP step changes in critical load levels are studied. Since there is always load uncertainties or load forecast errors in power systems, in this paper, a probabilistic method is presented to predict load levels in which LMP changes suddenly, the method takes topology and physical constraints into consideration using Two Point Estimate method (2PEM). The proposed method has been tested on the 5-bus PJM network.