Transmission planning risk indices - what now?

Risk is a widely acknowledged concept in the process of Transmission Planning. While planners obsess over risk and brain-storm to develop strategies to mitigate its effects, there is no industry standard - accepted or prescribed - that guides the planning process from a risk perspective. This is in part due to the intangible and subjective nature of risk, despite its formal definition. This intractability stems from the depths of perception as no two individuals perceive probability or consequence in the same quantitative terms. Set against this background, this paper provides a review of the current state of the risk indices in transmission planning. Complementing existing risk measures, new risk indices are proposed under three categories - base transfer, capacity benefit, and transmission service. The integration of these indices into the transmission planning process is presented.