Validation of applying the maximum likelihood duty cycle forecast for residential load aggregation

Author

Srinivasan, S. ; Chandrasekaran, A. ; Alouani, A.T.

Author_Institution

Dept. of Electr. Eng., Tennessee Technol. Univ., Cookeville, TN, USA

fYear

1993

fDate

7-9 Mar 1993

Firstpage

119

Lastpage

123

Abstract

The prediction of single house space heating load by the maximum likelihood duty cycle concept is extended to the next level of a group of houses supplied by a distribution feeder. Data collected in the Athens Load Control Experiment are used for validating the prediction. The random parameter is identified for each house in a group using the average day data in December 1986. The parameter is then applied for predicting the space heating load on a day in January 1987. The aim is to determine the effectiveness of the new stochastic appliance model for aggregating the space heating load of a group of houses

Keywords

aggregation; distribution networks; load forecasting; maximum likelihood estimation; space heating; stochastic processes; distribution feeder; group of houses; maximum likelihood duty cycle forecast; residential load aggregation; single house space heating load; stochastic appliance model; Density functional theory; Equations; Home appliances; Load flow control; Load forecasting; Maximum likelihood estimation; Predictive models; Space heating; Space technology; Stochastic processes;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

System Theory, 1993. Proceedings SSST '93., Twenty-Fifth Southeastern Symposium on

Conference_Location

Tuscaloosa, AL

ISSN

0094-2898

Print_ISBN

0-8186-3560-6

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/SSST.1993.522754

Filename

522754