The potential application of risk assessment to the Breakthrough Propulsion Physics Project

In May of 2001, researchers at the NASA Glenn Research center in Cleveland Ohio began exploring the possibility of applying risk assessment to a frontier propulsion project called Breakthrough Propulsion Physics (BPP). The goals of BPP are the drastic reduction or elimination of propellant mass, the attainment of hyper-fast space travel (approaching or exceeding) the speed of light, and new methods for onboard energy conversion. The BPP challenges transcend mere engineering and forces a re-examination of the fundamental physics from which technology is developed. BPP is at a maturity level of emerging science. The challenge is formidable: to apply risk assessment to a project that will not have conceptual designs for a long time to come. However, we suggest that it still makes a great deal of sense to think about the risks associated with various paths of research. In particular, it is suggested that there are a number of potential areas where risk assessment can be applied even when a project is at the maturity level of emerging science. It is believed that with the concepts and tools of risk assessment, more is possible than assessing potential reliability and maintainability. There is more to the story than the obvious need for greater reliability. We are proposing that risk assessment tools can be applied to guide research success.