Uncertain Analysis of Inventory Theoretic Model for Freight Mode Choice

The inventory theoretic model of freight transport is a model that analyses mode choice from a total logistics costs (TLC) perspective. TLC of every transport mode is influenced by many uncertain factors. In this paper, the uncertain analysis is focused on, using the inventory-theoretic model from the point of view of the shipper. Two transport modes are compared in this paper: direct road haulage and combined transport. Basing on the results of single factor sensitivity analysis, two factors sensitivity analysis is done. Monte-Carlo method is adopted to determine the probability distribution of TLC under uncertain conditions. Then these two transport modes: TLC can be compared by each own probability distribution. The transport mode which has lower TLC is chosen.